![]() ![]() In our model - again following Pueyo - we refer to this phase as “the dance,” because it will likely involve a kind of quickstep with the disease, reopening then potentially shutting down again to keep infection under control. More recently, a third “reopening” phase has started to take shape as countries seek to safely end shutdowns, stabilize economies, and accelerate growth. In other places, such as Yemen, there may still be a long way to go. In many places, this second “hammer” phase, to borrow a phrase from Thomas Pueyo’s influential article, has been quite successful - take New Zealand, for instance, along with Vietnam and Hong Kong. Nearly every country has moved into a more structured crisis response mode, aiming to control the virus’s growth through measures like lockdowns, social distancing, border closures, and contact tracing. Some places, such as Taiwan, responded swiftly, while others, such as North Korea and Tajikistan, took much longer to acknowledge a need for any virus suppression measures.įor most countries, that phase is now pretty much over. For instance, nearly every country experienced an initial “losing control” phase, where the virus took everyone by surprise. More precisely, we mapped those dimensions across the three phases of the crisis that have emerged so far. These differ hugely from place to place, of course, but nevertheless we believe that when and how any region or country reaches a next normal will generally depend on how the virus behaves there, how the economy behaves, and how people respond as a society. My team and I started by looking at the public health, economic, and socio-political dimensions of the crisis globally. How did you come up with the three scenarios? What will they want and need to build their businesses? Where are the markets going, where is regulation going? What other things will influence our environment? Scenario planning is one of the approaches we use when we look at those kinds of questions. Salesforce is a highly future-oriented company, so a big part of my role is to think about the future for our customers. Looking at the scenarios that emerge can help us make better decisions now, even in the face of uncertainties. ![]() Rather, it looks at the pivotal forces shaping the future - the critical uncertainties, as we call them - and tries to map where they’re taking us. Scenario planning doesn’t work by simply predicting what’s going to happen next. It’s a way to help us explore possible futures, so we can make better decisions today. By highlighting the main public health, economic, and sociopolitical dimensions of the current situation and putting them into a framework of critical uncertainties, the tool outlines three broadly applicable scenarios for the next 18–36 months. Working with a team of experts, leading futurist and Salesforce’s Senior Vice President of Strategic Planning, Peter Schwartz, has created a powerful scenario-planning tool to help leaders respond to these issues. How long will the current health and economic crises last? When will we move from crisis mode and back to work in the “next normal?” What will this new reality even look like? And with companies now beginning to work through how they’ll safely re-open their workplaces, they need answers to key questions. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, business leaders everywhere face huge challenges as they seek to safely steer their organizations through the crisis. ![]()
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